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With early voting well underway in Florida, the fate of the state’s Amendment 3, which would usher in recreational cannabis sales for adults 21 and older, is being decided.

But questions linger about the measure’s timeline and how Gov. Ron DeSantis’ administration will approach what could become the nation’s third-largest cannabis market, if the measure succeeds.

If passed, Amendment 3 would allow existing medical operators to begin adult-use after a six-month transition period without acquiring a separate license. State lawmakers would need to promulgate regulations by May 5, 2025, or existing medical rules would apply by default.

“The six-month time window is there obviously to give the legislature plenty of time,” Trulieve CEO Kim Rivers told Green Market Report at a media briefing this past week.

“But if they were not to act then, I think what would happen is we would begin selling. We would sell to adults 21 and up using the same standards and rules and regulations as exist under the medical program,” she said.

In addition to existing medical operators, more licenses could be issued if the legislature opts to create more.

Unprecedented spending

Amendment 3 has faced immense organized opposition from state agencies, with officials estimating $50 million in public spending for ads against the initiative.

Florida-based attorney John Morgan, who helped see the state’s medical cannabis initiative across the finish line in eight years ago, suggested the spending reflects the influence of the pharmaceutical and alcohol industries.

“Money runs Tallahassee,” Morgan said last week during a news conference with the campaign. “Marijuana, recreational and medical, is an existential threat to both of those industries.”

At the same time, supporters are also all in. Trulieve has poured more than $140 million of its own money in support of the measure, according to campaign finance records. That easily makes it the most expensive campaign for cannabis legalization to date.

Rivers told GMR that the spending is because of both the measure’s 60% approval threshold and Florida’s costly signature-gathering requirements.

“In Florida, the actual signature gathering process itself is and can be very expensive,” Rivers said, noting that that effort alone cost about $40 million due to strict distribution requirements across counties.

Trulieve also filed suit against the Florida GOP over what it called “deceptive ads,” which Rivers told GMR was still “ongoing.”

Between now and then

While the six-month transition period is baked into the constitutional amendment, operators and industry insiders have painted contrasting scenarios for implementation.

Longtime Florida cannabis attorney Michael Minardi, who previously ran for state office, believes implementation could move faster than some expect.

“The Supreme Court opinion said that they should be able to do it immediately, from the way I read it,” Minardi said last week during an industry roundtable. “The amendment does call for and gives the department six months to create rules, but technically and realistically what happened when we passed medical via the amendment, the MMTCs at that point in time pretty much almost immediately started selling to patients.”

In other words, current medical operators could follow precedent and begin sales under existing regulations while awaiting additional legislative guidance.

Minardi added, “The department was okay with it.”

He also clarified that it’s more likely this time around that “all the entities would get approval from the department before they did anything,” but technically, “the amendment is effective the first Tuesday of January (of 2025).”

However, other MMTC executives warned against assuming any immediate smooth sailing, even with voter approval.

“We think that the passing is going to be the race to the starting line, which could be 18 to 24 months out,” Fluent Cannabis CEO Robert Beasley said on the same call. “We will have good, clear guidance from the department that regulates us before we do so.”

The divide raises deeper questions about how DeSantis would approach implementation in light of his vocal opposition to the measure. Some operators noted that the administration’s approach to regulatory change has shifted since new leadership was appointed at the Department of Health.

“You got a department that has changed its face and dynamic with the leadership change. They are not a kinder, friendlier department now at this point,” Beasley noted. “Everything they’re doing is a little bit more aggressive towards its licensees since the regime change.”

Rivers felt differently.

“I give (the legislature not acting) a negative 5% possibility,” Rivers said. “This is an issue that just like every other constitutional amendment, there will be an implementing bill.”

Market panorama

BDSA projects that Florida’s medical sales will rise 9% to $2.8 billion this year, with adult-use adding another $874 million in 2025 if approved. The firm’s CEO, Roy Bingham, told GMR that he expects combined medical and adult-use sales to grow at a 12% compound annual rate through 2028.

The forecast is notably conservative compared to some analysts’ projections of up to $6.6 billion based on per-capita consumption in states like Michigan. But even conservative estimates acknowledge Florida’s existing market strength.

“There’s already enough infrastructure to sell up $3 billion worth of cannabis in Florida,” according to Andrew Livingston, director of economics and research at Denver-based cannabis law firm Vicente. That existing infrastructure could help moderate prices at launch, unlike states that started adult-use programs from scratch.

However, Livingston suggested Florida’s robust medical market adds uncertainty to adult-use projections.

“The question is how big is this market really going to grow from where it’s at now? Because it’s already huge,” he said. He noted that Florida has already captured nearly 4% of its population as medical patients – higher than other recent medical-to-adult-use markets like Missouri before its transition.

Rivers said competitive pricing would be crucial for converting an estimated 2 million illicit market consumers.

“It’s not going to do us any good if we pass a law and then people are priced out,” Rivers said. “The reality is we need competitive pricing to transition consumers from untested, unsafe product into the regulated market.”

The state recently finalized five new licenses for Black farmers tied to Pigford legislation, with another 22 permits waiting for DeSantis’ pen – potentially expanding the licensing pool to around 50 operators from its current 25 cap.

State Sen. Shevrin Jones, who joined Rivers and State Sen. Joe Gruters, the former Florida Republican Party chairman, at a briefing in Orlando on Tuesday, noted that he and members of the Black Caucus worked “tirelessly” with leadership to secure those five licenses.

Still, industry leaders suggest any new licensees could need two to three years to establish operations even if approved.

“As one of those new potential licensees with the capital investment necessary to be fully vertical, it would be daunting,” Beasley said. “I would have a hard time even recommending someone try it with the amount of capital that’s needed.”

Other MSOs are eyeing additional expansion in the state if Amendment 3 passed. For example, Planet 13, which recently entered Florida through its acquisition of VidaCann, said its plans for superstores in major metropolitan areas hinge on whether the measure succeeds.

“We’ll be looking at one of the three largest metro markets – metro Miami, Orlando and the Tampa St. Pete area,” said CEO Robert Groesbeck.