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Although Iām all for regulation some of this analysis does seem somewhat directed at a certain audience .
That audience being those who might want to spend money on lobbying and consultancy outfits to wrest cannabis and hemp industrialised products into the heart of mainstream corporate America, which, I could possibly suggest wasnāt really the idea in the first place although there are many who yet again smell the filthy lucre in goldrush 4 or is it gold rush 5 and therefore wholly desire that outcome as the central narrative in 2026 and moving foward in 2027 and beyond
The headline premise, āThe State Era Is Ending, The Standards Era Is Startingā somehow suggests that all states have been utterly useless at regulation and yes it is undoubtedly true that some have.
I would single out regulators in Massachusetts and New York as poster children for idiocracy although that said much of whatās on the books actually over regulates the world of cannabis and hemp itās just that the management of these ships is like watching the Captain of the Costa Concordia in action.
Other states have steered a steady course under difficult circumstances. I give NJ, MN, OR, WA, CO amongst others their due and hereās the rub that puts the GOP in a politics versus capital bind. The system demanded that change had to be made at the center yet supposedly the beating heart of the GOP is an adherence to states rights.
Which is it?
Of course, except for a few in the Congress , this is now all moot tosh and really just like the other side of the political equation they are in the hands of an administration run by individuals who appear to be obsessed with money and deals as the business of America is of course business, and yes increasingly that manner of business is defined by existing corporate multi-national giants and technology outfits.
I understand that for most the only prism that they can view cannabis and hemp is via markets and economics but until there is a more holistic view of this plant and the legacy of 100 or so years of prohibition; the same people and forces who told the wider world it was ābadā but now it is āgoodā because it has become a commodity to be exploited in a ālegalā contextĀ will I think be surprised by the increasing pushback fromĀ counter forces they probably arenāt even aware of. Cannabis has been locked into a 20th century mindset 25 years into the 21st century.
When i read the following phrases all i can guage is a desire to fit a round peg into what has now become a square hole as we approach a decade of ālegalizationā in the U.S.
This is federalism with money attached, which means it gets serious quickly.
The states built the cannabis economy because Washington would not. That was liberating for a while. It also produced a market that grew faster than its guardrails, and 2025 is the year that tab came due.
The low-dose beverage model survives when lawmakers can describe it to a congressional town hall of parents and grandparents.
Big banks will not move until Congress gives them a clean statutory lane, and 2025 already told you how allergic they are to ambiguity.
The era of drift is ending. The era of standards is beginning.
The premise that cannabis is to be slotted into the prevailing system with easy regulation and definition of standards has passed.
With regard to hemp McConnell made an oversight in 2019 he thinks he can change, he hasnāt a hope in hell, science and a grey economy dealt with that mistake with an exactitude that cannot be reversed.
With regard to Trumpās EO both sides of US politics can bicker as much as they like but they both moved too slowly on re-scheduling and the result may well be that corporate AmericaĀ does get its stock plays, āapprovedā medical productsĀ a fast food retail environment and so on and so forth but that will never put to bed the other side of the equation which grows like Steve McQueens blob.
Actually iād argue they have created the perfect environment for polar market to grow inexorably. The lessons from California and other states havenāt been learnt. The US commercial forces that desired a transnational globalised economyĀ in the 1980ās and 1990ās will have to learn that what they have built cannot be put back in a box sealed with tape and put in the closet.
TheĀ legacy, grey, black market, whatever you want to call it, cannot be bludgened to death with the dual hammers of regulation and enforcement, Time may tell a different story but weāll have to wait a century or so to find out the answer to that
Which leads me to my final observation. I read the following comment with a degree of sadness, The low-dose beverage model survives when lawmakers can describe it to a congressional town hall of parents and grandparents.This is really the only time people are mentioned in their analysis and those who matter are, as it is implied , the older and more conservative demographics within US society.
No mention of how the young think and view cannabis, they arenāt even dismissed they just arenāt mentioned.
Big mistake
The State Era Is Ending. The Standards Era Is Starting. |
| Context: 2025 ended the era when cannabis policy could be treated as a state-by-state experiment running beneath a sleepy federal ceiling. States have carried this issue for decades because Washington did not. They built medical programs, then adult-use markets, then the taxes, inspections, and enforcement tools that made the system feel real to consumers and local governments. Hemp followed the same pattern after the 2018 Farm Bill, when a federal definition created room for national commerce and a lot of states tried to keep up with rules that were never written for a fast-moving finished-products market. This year, the consequences of that loose federal lane became harder to ignore, and Congress moved toward language that would shut it down by treating many finished products as marijuana once they cross a tiny THC-per-package threshold. At the same time, the White House ordered DOJ to finish the Schedule III process for marijuana, pulling federal agencies back into a lane that states have managed for years. You can feel the shift in the stories that defined the year: taxes rising in places like Michigan, fast compliance timelines for intoxicating hemp in places like Ohio, and a growing list of states trying to separate regulated low-dose models from the synthetic and slapdash retail category that keeps triggering crackdowns. |
| What It Signals: This is federalism with money attached, which means it gets serious quickly. When Washington tightens hemp and loosens marijuanaās schedule, states lose some of the practical freedom they had when federal inaction let them improvise and iterate. The dormant Commerce Clause questions get louder when products move across state lines, and hemp has already been the proving ground because it built national supply chains under a federal label while states tried to regulate locally. Revenue is the next pressure point. States built budgets around cannabis taxes, and local governments built expectations around host fees and public safety costs, while a narrow federal definition can erase categories of sales and shift consumer demand overnight. The politics also move in predictable directions. When rules tighten or prices move, ballot questions and veto fights follow, and 2025 closed with Ohio in open conflict over hemp beverage rules and Massachusetts staring at a serious rollback campaign track. Federal action will not erase state power, but it will change the boundaries, and those boundaries will shape investment, enforcement, and consumer safety. |
THC Group Take: Here is the honest end-of-year read: the states built the cannabis economy because Washington would not. That was liberating for a while. It also produced a market that grew faster than its guardrails, and 2025 is the year that tab came due. Hemp is where you can see the federal mood most clearly. Congress is not trying to punish everyone who acted responsibly. Congress is trying to shut down a national intoxicating market that slipped through a definition that was never written for knock-off gas station candy. That sweep is going to be messy, and the industry has one credible move if it wants a lane to survive: stop arguing for exception and start offering structure. Defined servings. Real age-gating. Testing that meets accredited standards. Enforcement that welcomes the knock on the door when someone is selling synthetics out of a gas station. The low-dose beverage model survives when lawmakers can describe it to a congressional town hall of parents and grandparents. Marijuana rescheduling is different and the same. Different because it runs through process and litigation, and it will not turn into overnight normalcy. The same because Washington is stepping back into the fray and insisting on a record that can survive. The rescheduling headline matters, and the effective date matters more, and the months between them are where opponents will try to stall the whole thing on procedure. If you run a business, plan for momentum and budget for delay. If you are waiting for banking to magically unlockā¦donāt. Big banks will not move until Congress gives them a clean statutory lane, and 2025 already told you how allergic they are to ambiguity. So what should you take into 2026? The era of drift is ending. The era of standards is beginning. The jurisdictions and companies that win will be the ones that can explain their model in plain English, defend it on public health terms, and show regulators a lane that deserves to exist. Everyone else will spend the year explaining why they should be spared from the crackdown that someone else made inevitable. |
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