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The new report projects a steady growth in the state industry until 2030.

A new Nevada report confirms the state’s cannabis trade has been in a downturn for several years. This is similar to other states who have seen their marijuana sales fall since the end COVID-19 and the government stimulus checks during the quarantine era. It also predicts that the future will be brighter, with a shrinking illegal market on a long-term basis, which will lead to growth for legal cannabis businesses.

The report, published by the Nevada Cannabis Compliance Board, and authored by consulting company TPMA, found legal marijuana sales have “noticeably declined” since the industry peaked in 2021.

TPMA reported that “following overall market trends, the monthly sales peaked in March 2021, followed a slow decline, and a recent leveling off.” While sales may have appeared to be leveling out in the short-term, projections… show that the trend will reverse itself, with growth projected to continue until 2030, and an increase in consumers.

Market contraction

The report noted that the monthly sales in April of three years ago were approximately $95 million. Since then, this has dropped to around $68 million by September 2023.

The number of medical patients registered also decreased by 14%, to 12,169. Medical sales, however, typically make up less than 1% in the overall cannabis market.

According to the same source, taxable cannabis sales also haven’t increased significantly since then. Nevada Department of Taxation data. In June, adult use and medical marijuana combined sales were $69.3 millions, with monthly averages around $70 million. In February, sales increased to $82.9million after the market had reached a low of $54.9million in December 2023.

According to the report, Nevada still has an important illicit cannabis market estimated to be worth between $242 million and $370 million. In 2022, the state’s legal cannabis market sales will total $862 million.

TPMA reported that the number of marijuana businesses in Nevada fell 12% between 2021-2023. This is down from 754 companies in 2022 to 665. All license categories, except retail dispensary, reported declines. Licensed retailers increased in number from 84 in 2020 to 100 in 2023.

Despite fewer operators the production has continued to increase. TPMA reported that the remaining cultivators increased production to the point where the state produces more cannabis products than ever, even as the market contracts. The average monthly harvests of 2022 and 2023 were “nearly double” that of 2020 and 2021. They reached more than 4 million pounds last year.

The report estimates that the total cannabis demand in Nevada is between 3.2 and 4.4 millions pounds per year.

National confusion

The report also made several policy recommendations to Nevada regulators before going off on a tangent about federal marijuana reform and ongoing rescheduling process The Drug Enforcement Administration is the agency that can move cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule 3.

The authors of the TPMA Report appeared to confuse the rescheduling with “de-scheduling,” removing marijuana from the list entirely, and “federal legalization,” multiple cannabis attorneys pointed out that this is not accurate.

The report claimed that rescheduling marijuana would create a “national cannabis market” that would “eliminate state lines” and lead to an “explosion” of cross-state trade. However, attorneys claim that this is not true.

“The Compliance Board appears to equate the current proposed rescheduling cannabis with full descheduling even though they are not at all the same thing,” said Jason Horst. He is a cannabis attorney in California and a former president of the International Cannabis Bar Association.

Horst stated that “there is no serious movement to deschedule cannabis, which would criminalize the plant on the federal level.” “The Board’s analysis is largely unrelated to how the legal landscape of the national cannabis market will actually change,” Horst said. Ironically, the Board does not mention the most important practical impact of rescheduling on the current state markets. Tax burdens on federal income “Issued by IRS Code 280E.”

In an emailed message, the Nevada CCB stated that TPMA, not the Nevada CCB, had authored the report. However, it noted that their staff “connected with TPMA in order to clarify that the legalization section reflects a specific point in time rather than a national dialogue ongoing.”

The spokesperson for the agency noted that they “conducted their own investigation” Own review earlier this year which serves as the primary resource on federal rescheduling/descheduling for the CCB.”

The TPMA did no respond immediately to requests for comment Tuesday.

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